Is The White House’s 240,000 Coronavirus Deaths Estimate Overblown?

Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, showed charts on death estimates related to the coronavirus pandemic. © Jabin Botsford

Boston Globe/Washington Post: Experts, Trump’s advisers doubt White House’s 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimate

WASHINGTON - Leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude that 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration's projection this week.

The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but said they don’t know how the White House arrived at them.

White House officials have refused to explain how they generated the figure - a death toll bigger than the United States suffered in the Vietnam War or the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. They have not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability, and have not provided long-term strategies to lower that death count.

Some of President Trump’s top advisers have expressed doubts about the estimate, according to three White House officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. There have been fierce debates inside the White House about its accuracy.

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Update: Trump officials privately question White House coronavirus death toll estimate: WaPo (The Hill)

WNU Editor: So the people who made these models are the ones who initially approached the White House. They gave their model/predictions, that the White House then makes public. Almost immediately these statisticians then rush to the media questioning their own models, and are requesting anonymity?!?!?! This is outrageous! I say bring these people up to explain their models, anonymity be damned. The whole U.S. economy has been shut down based on their expert and scientific approach to predicting this crisis. Explanations have to be given starting with White House coronavirus response coordinator Deborah Birx, Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and last but not least those who made these models and predictions.

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