No One Has No Planned A Worst-Case Scenario On Covid-19

Noah Feldman, Bloomberg: America Has No Plan for the Worst-Case Scenario on Covid-19

In the midst of the constant up-and-down of coronavirus news, both from science and the markets, it’s easy to lose sight of the scariest scenario of them all: the one where there’s no magic bullet. In this entirely plausible situation, there would be no effective Covid-19 vaccine or transformative therapy; the combination of testing and contact tracing wouldn’t successfully suppress the outbreak; and herd immunity would come, if at all, only after millions of deaths around the world.

Even raising this possibility is a big downer. But the fact that an outcome is terrible doesn’t make it impossible.

Since the end of February, I’ve conducted some 20 interviews with epidemiologists and virologists like Marc Lipsitch, Angela Rasmussen, and Carl Bergstrom; economists like Paul Romer, Stefanie Stantcheva and Larry Summers; and leaders at top hospitals and experts on government agencies whose names you may not know, but whose life’s work is preparing for moments like this one. Despite getting expert answers to dozens of my questions, the one question I haven’t been able to get an answer for is this: Who, exactly, is planning for the nightmare scenario in which we never get a vaccine or a breakthrough treatment?

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WNU Editor: From the start of this pandemic, I have yet to read an article or see a report where a government is thinking of a worst-case scenario. It appears that no one wants to go there. Unfortunately, we may be approaching a time where people will have to start thinking of worst-case scenarios. Why my pessimism. Researchers are now discovering Covid-19 coronavirus mutations that would complicate any vaccine from being developed .... Coronavirus mutations: Scientists puzzle over impact (BBC), and they are still in the dark on what this may mean .... Many coronavirus mutations are circling the globe, but we don't know if any are more dangerous (USA Today).

Update: Here is one worst-case scenario .... What happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It has happened before (Rob Picheta, CNN).

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