This Pollster Thinks President Trump Will Win

Robert Cahaly, chief pollster of the Trafalgar Group, on Fox News, Oct. 25. PHOTO: FOX NEWS

WSJ: The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Will Win 

Robert Cahaly foresaw the outcome in 2016. Will ‘social acceptability bias’ deliver another surprise?

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by an average of 7 or 8 points in national surveys, more narrowly in battleground states. Everybody remembers the shock of 2016, but can the polls be wrong again? 

Ask the question in a different way: Are poll respondents telling the truth? Robert Cahaly, head of the Trafalgar Group, thinks a lot of people aren’t. Trafalgar polls accurately foresaw the outcome in 2016, calling Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan for Mr. Trump. In 2020 the Atlanta-based consulting firm has generally shown Mr. Trump to be in a stronger position than the conventional wisdom would suggest. 

In an interview over a catfish supper at the OK Cafe diner, Mr. Cahaly won’t reveal much about his methods, but he says his polls mitigate what social scientists call “social desirability bias.” The mainstream media and other authority figures have openly and aggressively contended that Mr. Trump is a white supremacist, a would-be dictator, a cretinous buffoon and an inveterate liar. In such an environment, poll respondents who sympathize with the president, or who believe his administration has on balance done more good than harm, may be forgiven for not saying so to a stranger over the phone. 

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WNU Editor: Robert Cahaly's Twitter feed is here .... The Trafalgar Group (Twitter feed). A tracking poll that I like to follow and has been proven accurate in the past is Rasmussen .... Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen).

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