Are The Anxiety Levels Rising In Russia Over The Ukraine War?
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Leaders meeting in Yerevan on November 23, 2022. Karen Minasyan/AFP
* When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, nobody in President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle is believed to have expected the war to last more than a few months.
* As the weather turns cold once again, and back to the freezing and muddy conditions that Russia’s invading forces experienced at the start of the war, Moscow faces what’s likely to be months more fighting, military losses and potential defeat.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, nobody in President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle is believed to have expected the war to last more than a few months.
As the weather turns cold once again, and back to the freezing and muddy conditions that Russia’s invading forces experienced at the start of the conflict, Moscow faces what’s likely to be months more fighting, military losses and potential defeat.
That, Russian political analysts say, will be catastrophic for Putin and the Kremlin, who have banked Russia’s global capital on winning the war against Ukraine. They told CNBC that anxiety was rising in Moscow over how the war was progressing.
“Since September, I see a lot of changes [in Russia] and a lot of fears,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and founder and head of political analysis firm R.Politik, told CNBC.
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WNU Editor: The above CNBC post is mostly based on the observations and analysis of Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and founder and head of political analysis firm R.Politik.
She believes that Putin's inner circle are worried that they are facing defeat in Ukraine. I am skeptical of her observations. For one .... I doubt that Putin's inner circle talks to her. Also, information leaking out of the Kremlin, as was the case at the beginning of the war, have stopped completely.
As to her observation that there is now a lot of fear in Russia. Sighhh .... that is not what I call a brilliant analysis. Everyone in Russia is afraid on what this war has brought, is bringing, and will bring in the future. Myself included.
But she is right that September was the turning point. That is when conscription was introduced, and it was during this time that it became clear to everyone (including myself) that the Kremlin was going to take the gloves off in its war against the Ukraine government and its military.
So what is the current mood in Russia?
From what I read on Russian social media sites that I trust, and from all of my conversations with contacts, friends, and family in Russia. I sense four distinct moods. (1) Anger at the West. Especially against the US government. (2) Fear and worry about the future. Doubly so if you have a loved one serving in Ukraine. (3) A resignation that this is going to be a long war, but one that Russia must win at all cost. (4) A determination to see it too the end.
But as much as the mood has changed in Russia since September, the real question that should be asked is .... what is the mood in Ukraine?
From what I read on Ukrainian social media sites that I trust, and from all of my conversations with contacts, friends, and family in Ukraine. I sense the following moods.
(1) Fear, but a fear that is many times more intense than what I am sensing from Russia. One of my cousins who is a Ukrainian nationalist/supporter of Azov/Right Sector/etc., had the look of real fear when I Face-time with her last week. She will be traveling to Canada in January, but it is clear that she wants to get out of the country ASAP with her daughter. But what struck me was the look of her husband. He had that desperate look of wanting his wife and daughter to leave right now.
(2) Anguish. My cousin who is leaving for Canada in January runs a Facebook page that is filled with posts of missing Ukrainian soldiers. She has become one of those go to places for information on missing soldiers Sighhh .... there are now many Ukrainian families desperate for any information on a missing loved one. I personally do not know where she finds the strength to do it.
(3) Anger directed at Putin, and to a lesser extent against Russians and Ukrainian-Russians.
(4) Frustration and anger at the West for not giving more aid.
(5) A resignation that Ukraine will probably lose, but a determination to still fight to the end with the hope that the cost to Russia will be so astronomical that the Kremlin will sue for peace.
As to what is my mood.
Fear on what will be happening in the coming months. A resignation that this is going to be a long war. I am not angry or filled with hate, I am not that type of person. But I feel the pain and anguish of everyone who is suffering because of this war. I am also filled with a determination and need to help as many as I can, regardless of the financial/physical/and emotional costs that are involved.
I also have the need to use this blog to cover this war as best as I can. It is at times hard. There are times when I feel exhausted and completely drained. The news is never good. But if my cousin can post hundreds of missing Ukrainian soldiers and their stories on her Facebook page, I can do a few posts each day on this blog.
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