This Is How Russia Will Defeat Ukraine's Counteroffensive

Ukrainian service members ride a BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle near the front line in the newly liberated village Neskuchne in Donetsk region, Ukraine, June 13, 2023. REUTERS/Oleksandr Ratushniak 

Washington Post: Russia aims to defeat counteroffensive with mines, artillery and aviation 

RIGA, Latvia — As Ukraine readied its counteroffensive by gathering Western weapons and sending its troops for NATO training, Russia spent at least seven months preparing for this potentially definitive stage of the war — by readying reserves, artillery and aviation support, stockpiling ammunition and fuel, and procuring more drones. 

Russian forces also burrowed into the territory they occupy in southeast Ukraine, digging lines of trenches and erecting fortifications along the entire 900-mile-long front line, from Zaporizhzhia to Russia’s Belgorod region. 

The massive network of defenses has weaknesses, according to military experts who described Russia’s preparations, but it is already slowing offensive operations and creating bottlenecks for the Ukrainian army, forcing it to try to break through on narrow paths, which allows Russia to regroup and aim more precisely.  

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WNU Editor: For any offensive to succeed you need surprise, superiority in manpower, artillery, and control of the skies. I would also add large supplies and good logistics. 

In all of these categories it is Russia that has the numbers, superiority in the air, and more important, shorter logistic lines than the Ukrainian army. 

And as to Ukraine's counteroffensive strategy. After two weeks this is all that I have seen so far (see tweets below).

With Ukraine throwing more forces in to attack around both Orikhiv and Kam’yanske, it’s long past time to admit that they did not have a plan more sophisticated than hammering on the front of Russia’s extensive defenses in the south. This really was the master plan.

— Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 (@witte_sergei) June 17, 2023

It seems Ukraine believed its own nonsense about the Kharkov and Kherson counteroffensives and thought they could replicate that story here.

— Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 (@witte_sergei) June 17, 2023

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