Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic: The Best And Worst Death Case Scenarios In The U.S.

New York Times: Could Coronavirus Cause as Many Deaths as Cancer in the U.S.? Putting Estimates in Context

Although it’s impossible to say how many Americans will die because of the new coronavirus, under a reasonable set of assumptions the number of fatalities could be high — potentially in the hundreds of thousands or more.

Deaths on that scale are not easy to grasp. To put the estimates in context, we’re comparing the possible toll with other leading causes of death in the United States in 2018, the most recent year with data available. We’ve started with an estimate from a University of Nebraska public health researcher, Dr. James Lawler, that was recently presented to hospital executives: 480,000 American deaths over the course of the illness known as Covid-19.

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WNU Editor: The worst case scenario for the U.S. .... 70% infection rate with a 3% mortality rate .... will be 7 million Americans dead. I do not think this worst case scenario is going to happen. The pandemic appears to be levelling off in China and South Korea, and places like Hong Kong and Taiwan have been successful in minimizing the impact of the covid-19 coronavirus. I am confident that countries like the U.S. and Canada will also be successful in minimizing the death rate. But it is going to be a rough few months, and maybe into the next year.



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